What 2025 Told Us About Where We're Headed for West Hawaii

If you've been watching the North Kona real estate market over the past year, you've probably noticed it feels... different. Not necessarily bad, just different. After 20 years of time on the island, and being in the real industry for over 15, Eric and I have seen our share of market shifts, but 2025 gave us some interesting data points that are worth unpacking.

Let me walk you through what actually happened in North Kona last year, and more importantly, what it means for you whether you're thinking about buying or selling in 2026.

The Big Picture: A Tale of Two Markets

Here's the headline: North Kona's single-family home and condo markets went in completely different directions in 2025, and understanding why matters if you're making real estate decisions this year.

Single-Family Homes: Stable Prices, Fewer Buyers

Let's start with single-family homes, which have always been the bread and butter of the North Kona market.

The Numbers:

• Median price dropped from $1,277,400 in 2024 to $1,250,000 in 2025 - that's a 2.14% decrease
• Total sales fell from 411 homes in 2024 to 364 in 2025 - an 11.44% decline
• December alone saw sales drop 24%, with only 25 homes sold compared to 33 the previous December

Now, before you panic (if you're a seller) or get too excited (if you're a buyer), let's talk about what this actually means.

A 2% price decline is remarkably stable given that sales volume dropped by more than 11%. Think about it - significantly fewer people bought homes, but prices barely budged. That tells me that North Kona's premium location and limited inventory are still holding strong. The homes that are selling are still commanding solid prices; there's just less urgency in the market than we saw during the wild post-COVID years.

By December 2025, single-family homes were spending an average of 60 days on the market and selling for 91.85% of their asking price. Translation: sellers are getting about 8% less than they're listing for, and it's taking about two months to close a deal.

For context, during the height of the market in 2021-2022, we were seeing multiple offers within days and homes selling at or above asking price. We're not there anymore, but we're also not in a buyer-can-name-their-price situation either. This is what a balanced market actually looks like.

Condos: The Surprising Comeback Story

Now here's where 2025 got really interesting.

The Numbers:

• Annual median price: $635,000 in 2024 down to $615,000 in 2025 - a 3.15% decrease
• Annual sales: 329 units in 2024 to 317 in 2025 - only a 3.65% decline
• But December 2025 was wild: 35 condos sold (up 45% from 24 in December 2024)

So for most of 2025, condos were trending similarly to single-family homes - slightly down in both price and volume. Nothing dramatic. But then December happened.

What drove that surge? I have a few theories based on conversations with buyers and other agents:

1. Affordability Shift: As interest rates remained elevated throughout 2025, buyers who might have purchased single-family homes in previous years started looking at condos as a more accessible entry point into the North Kona market.
2. Vacation Rental Investors: We saw renewed interest from mainland investors looking for turnkey vacation rental opportunities. December is traditionally when people make year-end investment decisions, and the condo market benefited.
3. Pent-Up Demand: Condos were sitting on the market longer in 2025 (126 days on average in December), but when buyers committed, they were more decisive. That 93.31% sale-to-list ratio is actually better than single-family homes.

What This Means for Buyers in 2026

If you're thinking about buying in North Kona this year, you're in a fundamentally different position than buyers were three years ago. You have time. You have negotiating power. You're not competing with 10 other offers on every property.

For Single-Family Home Buyers:

• Expect to negotiate 8-10% off asking price
• Plan for a 60-90 day search and transaction timeline
• Inventory is better than it was, but quality properties still move when priced right
• This is the market where inspections, appraisals, and due diligence actually matter again

For Condo Buyers:

• More options with longer market times give you leverage
• But watch for that momentum shift we saw in December - good properties in desirable complexes still attract multiple offers
• Vacation rental potential remains strong, so factor that into your investment analysis
• That 3% annual price decline might represent a buying opportunity before the market stabilizes

What This Means for Sellers in 2026

I'm not going to sugarcoat it - if you're selling, you need to adjust your expectations from what you might have heard about during the 2021-2022 boom.

Pricing is Everything: When homes are selling at 91-93% of asking price, that tells me that sellers who overprice are leaving money on the table through extended market time and eventual price reductions. The market will find the right price whether you start there or not - starting there just saves you time and maximizes your net proceeds.

Presentation Matters More: With 60-126 days on market, buyers have time to compare properties. The homes and condos that show well, are priced right, and have compelling stories are the ones selling. The days of "it doesn't matter, someone will buy it anyway" are behind us.

Timing Your Sale: That December condo surge is interesting, but I wouldn't base your entire strategy on one month. What I would say is that understanding seasonal patterns and working with an agent who knows how to position your property for your specific buyer pool is more important than ever.

The Bigger Context: West Hawaii Isn't Mainland USA

One thing I always remind clients - especially those relocating from the mainland - is that Hawaii real estate operates with different fundamentals than most of the country.

We have geographic constraints that don't exist in Phoenix or Austin. We can't just build more subdivisions when demand increases. North Kona, in particular, has limited developable land, especially in the desirable coastal areas. That scarcity creates a price floor that you don't see in markets with unlimited sprawl potential.

The 2-3% price declines we're seeing aren't a crash - they're a normalization after an unprecedented run-up. And frankly, a market where median single-family homes are still $1.25 million is a market that's doing just fine.

Looking Ahead to 2026

So what's my prediction for this year? I think we're in a stabilization phase that could last through much of 2026.

Interest rates will play a huge role -if they stay at their current rate of 6.1%, we'll probably continue to see the kind of measured market we experienced in the second half of 2025. If they drop due to job losses or international issues, we could see that pent-up buyer demand translate into increased sales volume. 

What I don't expect is a return to the frenzy of 2021-2022, nor do I expect a significant correction beyond what we've already seen. North Kona remains one of the most desirable places to live in Hawaii, and that fundamental demand isn't going anywhere.

The Bottom Line

Whether you're buying or selling in North Kona in 2026, success comes down to understanding that this is a market where knowledge, patience, and proper positioning matter more than they have in years.

For buyers, take your time, do your homework, and don't be afraid to negotiate - but also don't overthink it to the point where you miss out on the right property.

For sellers, price it right from the start, present it beautifully, and work with someone who understands current market dynamics rather than what worked three years ago.

And for everyone, remember that real estate is local and personal. These statistics tell us about the market overall, but your specific situation - your timeline, your property, your goals - matters more than any median price or days-on-market number.

If you want to dig deeper into how these trends affect your specific situation, we're always here to help. Eric and I have been navigating North Kona real estate since 2020, and if there's one thing we've learned, it's that the best decisions come from combining solid data with local expertise and a clear understanding of your own goals.

Mahalo for reading, and here's to making smart real estate decisions in 2026!

Julie Ziemelis is a licensed real estate agent with 365 Hawaii | Real Broker, specializing in West Hawaii properties. She and her husband Eric help clients navigate the Big Island real estate market with 20 years of local lifestyle experience. 

Send me an email and let's set up a Zoom call if its time to buy or sell in 2026! Julie@Ziemelis.com