What's in store for the real estate market in 2026 in West Hawaii?
I just watched a national webinar where Logan Mohtashami, a renowned expert in the mortgage and housing ecosystem, gave his predictions on the US market. He predicts housing appreciation will only be 2% in 2026. Home sales will be up from the previous year, which remained almost flat, and there will be more homes selling if the interest rates stay below 6.25%. He also forsees mortgage rates staying steady for longer. Today the average 30 year loan rate is 6.19%, but the jobs report is due on Friday and that could move the needle a bit.
However, Mohtashami does not believe the Federal Reserve policy will lower the rate much this year. The good news is rates will not experience the swings we saw in 2022-2024, where buyers were on the fence waiting for better, which also influenced home sellers to wait for drops to catch as many buyers as possible, putting the entire housing market into a watch and wait mode.
What we experienced in 2025 in West Hawaii was buyers dipping their toes in the water and deciding to hold off 6-9 months to see how the economy played out in 2026 before deciding to come back in and purchase a home. We also had buyers who thought their home on the mainland would sell quickly and for asking price and slowly pulled away from their search as their house continued to sit on the market.
We saw sellers in West Hawaii using aspirational pricing strategies, then having to accept 4-6% less on average or taking their homes off the market (De-listing) to wait for better days ahead.
Homes Being De-Listed By Sellers
When sellers take their homes off the market to wait for a "better market", they already made a decision it was time to sell. Forecasters are predicting, 2026 will get them moving, expecially if there has been a life change such as divorce, retirement, kids leaving home, etc.
For my numbers readers, here are some stats:
- September 2025: Nearly 85,000 homes were delisted - up 28% from September 2024
- October 2025: Delistings were up 45.5% year-to-date and up nearly 38% from October 2024 alone
Key trends throughout 2025:
- 2025 was the busiest year for home delistings since Realtor.com began tracking the statistic in 2022 Fox Business
- Roughly 6% of listings since June have been removed from the market by sellers each month Fox Business
- Delistings jumped 47-48% in June compared to the previous year
- The trend peaked in August with a 72% annual growth rate
Who's delisting: Nearly half (47%) of delistings were from sellers who purchased their homes within the last 5 years, particularly those who bought between 2020-2023 during the ultra-low mortgage rate period.
We personally have met with sellers who bought in 2022 and they just can not stomach selling their homes for a loss. Clearly, they are far from alone. So they wait. Until they can't.
And the good news, is that there are buyers who are finished waiting to get on with THEIR lives and goals for homeownership. More buyers came into the market in late fall with an uptick in activity as they saw that wildly fluctuating mortgage rates were a thing of the past. Buyers and sellers may meet in the middle in 2026 and I predict the real estate market will get moving again!
If you are a buyer or seller, I can send you up to date comparables in the micro markets of West Hawaii or Waikoloa Village and we have referral parnters around the island who specialize in the other markets who can provide information, as well.
Julie Ziemelis - Julie@Ziemelis.com
808-785-2898
RS-85062
