Should You Pull Your Home Off the Market and Wait?

I have had a few conversations with folks considering selling their home lately. There is a prevailing Déjà vu each time I have this conversation.."If I can't get what I want for the house, I'll just pull it off the market and re-list next year when conditions improve."

I get it. But let's look at what the data is actually telling us about 2026.

The Reality Check

Here in West Hawaii, single-family home prices are down 3.4% year-over-year to a median of $1.255M. Sales are down 17.6%. Homes are sitting on the market 29% longer than last year—27 days instead of 21. And here's the kicker: pending sales just hit their lowest level since 2009.

But sellers keep telling me they'll wait for better conditions. So let's talk about what "better conditions" might look like in 2026.

What the Economists Are Saying

The consensus among economists right now? A 39-40% chance of recession by September 2026. Not great odds.

GDP growth is expected to drop from 2.0% this year to 1.7% next year. Unemployment is forecast to climb to 4.6%. And here's what matters for real estate: higher tariffs and economic uncertainty are expected to hit consumers hardest in Q4 2025 through Q3 2026—exactly when you're planning to re-list.

For Kailua-Kona specifically, forecasts predict only 2.46% price growth over the next year. Let's put that in perspective.

The Math Doesn't Work

Say you have a $1.3M home. A 2.46% increase is about $32,000. Sounds good, right?

Now add up 12 months of:

• HOA fees
• Property taxes
• Insurance (which is skyrocketing in Hawaii)
• Maintenance
• Utilities if it's vacant

You're easily looking at $40,000-$60,000 in carrying costs. That 2.46% gain? You just lost money.

And that's assuming prices actually go UP. With a 40% chance of recession, they could easily go down.

The Competition Problem

Here's what nobody's talking about: if you pull your house off the market and wait, you're not the only one doing it. When everyone with the same strategy dumps their inventory back on the market in 2026, you've got more competition, not less. More homes for sale in a potentially weaker economy means more downward pressure on prices.

What Actually Makes Sense

Look, I know this isn't what sellers want to hear. But the market doesn't care what we want. It cares about supply and demand.

Right now, we still have 49% cash buyers in Kona. That's a strong buyer pool. Pending sales are starting to tick back up, showing demand is recovering. If you price competitively based on recent comps—not where you wish the market was—good properties are still selling.

Waiting for "perfect" conditions in 2026 isn't a strategy. It's hope. And hope isn't a plan when economists are talking about recession odds approaching 50%.

The Bottom Line

If multiple buyers or their agents are telling you through their actions (or lack thereof) that your price is too high, that's the market speaking. Ignoring it for 12 months while paying carrying costs and hoping for an economic turnaround that may not come? That's not looking at the whole picture.

The best time to sell was probably six months ago. The second-best time is today—at the right price. The worst time? Next year in a recession when you're forced to sell.

Price it right, sell it now, move on with your life.

If you would like a consult on selling your home, please call us at 808-785-2898.

We offer access to our subscribers on our 365Hawaii  and 365 Hawaii Real Estate Minute YouTube Channels, a private Facebook group of buyers with 2000 members and an email list of over 1200 including a variety of marketing strategies to get your home sold at a price the market hears.